* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 09/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 32 36 40 42 42 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 32 36 40 42 42 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 30 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 8 6 16 21 37 51 60 66 46 28 24 31 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 13 7 6 7 4 -5 -5 -14 -2 3 8 3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 266 256 221 236 231 234 237 226 239 239 250 261 294 321 314 308 299 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 27.5 25.9 23.0 22.0 20.5 21.5 22.2 22.7 23.5 24.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 148 149 131 114 93 88 81 84 87 88 91 95 99 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.5 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 1 3 0 4 1 6 3 700-500 MB RH 74 72 74 72 71 73 70 71 66 67 64 60 54 54 50 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 17 18 20 19 18 15 13 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 80 87 79 71 67 69 56 45 10 18 -4 -26 -41 -22 -20 -19 -18 200 MB DIV 94 97 85 83 89 97 94 65 28 18 -6 -8 0 8 2 -25 -21 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 -9 -4 8 6 21 6 4 -3 0 1 1 7 4 2 LAND (KM) 386 480 511 504 490 394 382 278 105 58 -10 -70 -66 -92 -155 -206 -247 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 14.6 16.8 19.4 21.6 23.8 25.6 26.9 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.2 21.2 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.2 20.4 19.2 17.9 16.4 14.6 12.7 11.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 8 4 3 5 10 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 19 20 21 16 9 1 0 1 1 4 6 6 9 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 37. 38. 38. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -5. -16. -28. -34. -36. -40. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -7. -13. -16. -19. -20. -22. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 7. 11. 15. 17. 17. 9. 1. -11. -18. -21. -23. -24. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 20.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 09/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.71 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -54.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.54 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 18.4% 11.5% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 24.8% 13.4% 6.7% 2.4% 7.0% 6.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 5.8% 3.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 16.3% 9.3% 5.8% 1.0% 2.6% 6.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 11.1% 5.6% 2.9% 0.5% 1.8% 3.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 09/24/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 32 36 40 42 42 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 29 33 37 39 39 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 26 30 32 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 23 25 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT