* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 09/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 35 41 43 44 37 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 35 41 43 44 37 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 28 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 9 17 26 29 43 57 69 60 41 34 32 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 6 10 5 3 3 5 -8 -11 -7 0 1 6 4 2 SHEAR DIR 262 269 276 254 239 230 232 218 224 241 248 258 263 275 302 307 287 SST (C) 29.2 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.0 26.3 25.6 24.5 23.9 22.6 20.7 21.3 22.2 22.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 147 145 146 146 146 137 117 110 101 97 89 80 81 83 87 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 7 5 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 76 74 73 72 68 63 62 65 62 55 50 46 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 16 19 19 17 15 13 12 9 8 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 75 80 83 72 56 37 42 40 8 1 9 -10 -16 -8 -18 3 5 200 MB DIV 86 89 102 103 97 122 105 73 36 23 -1 1 -27 -5 -15 -27 -41 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -3 -3 -6 5 10 9 9 9 3 1 -1 2 10 7 18 LAND (KM) 291 359 403 420 417 367 366 385 242 180 148 123 -12 -77 -114 -159 -181 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.1 14.2 16.2 18.5 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.1 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.0 20.5 20.8 21.0 20.9 20.6 20.0 19.3 18.5 17.3 16.1 14.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 6 5 4 9 11 11 10 11 9 8 7 5 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 16 16 17 16 13 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 36. 38. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -15. -27. -37. -41. -45. -49. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -9. -14. -16. -19. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 10. 16. 18. 19. 12. 1. -9. -20. -23. -27. -27. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 19.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 09/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.72 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.5 -4.5 to -89.2 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 17.5% 11.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 27.3% 13.2% 5.0% 1.9% 5.1% 5.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 5.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 16.8% 8.5% 4.9% 0.7% 1.8% 5.8% 0.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.2% 11.4% 5.2% 2.4% 0.3% 1.4% 2.9% 0.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 09/24/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 35 41 43 44 37 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 32 38 40 41 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 31 33 34 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 24 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT