* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 09/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 35 38 37 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 35 38 37 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 28 29 29 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 12 14 17 32 36 43 52 59 62 47 36 36 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 5 11 1 0 5 -2 -3 -10 -5 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 258 255 272 267 236 226 220 229 216 228 235 250 259 271 280 286 281 SST (C) 28.8 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 27.6 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.1 25.1 24.6 24.2 23.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 155 154 154 151 150 132 118 113 110 106 104 103 99 96 90 83 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.6 -53.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 5 3 6 4 8 700-500 MB RH 80 77 76 78 79 76 74 67 61 56 58 55 52 48 44 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 17 16 17 15 14 13 11 8 7 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 76 68 61 58 43 16 49 27 6 -13 -14 -41 -28 -43 -26 -15 -11 200 MB DIV 72 76 87 130 124 96 147 70 29 29 13 -29 -21 -42 -27 -6 -28 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 12 17 5 4 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 234 226 212 209 241 201 341 423 373 374 355 338 317 273 204 117 65 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.7 11.4 12.2 13.0 14.6 16.7 18.9 20.6 21.9 23.3 24.3 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.2 17.9 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.4 20.0 20.5 20.6 20.5 20.0 19.2 18.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 8 10 11 10 7 7 7 5 4 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 17 19 17 19 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 30. 33. 34. 34. 35. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -7. -17. -28. -38. -43. -48. -52. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 13. 12. 7. -1. -12. -23. -28. -33. -35. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 17.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 09/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.78 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.58 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 22.2% 12.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 11.4% 45.6% 22.3% 8.2% 4.9% 11.7% 10.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 12.6% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 26.8% 12.3% 6.5% 1.7% 4.2% 7.5% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 15.4% 6.6% 3.2% 0.8% 2.1% 3.7% 0.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 09/23/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 35 38 37 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 32 35 34 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 27 30 29 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 19 22 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT