* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 09/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 37 40 38 33 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 37 40 38 33 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 30 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 3 5 11 16 23 30 36 49 56 60 34 32 27 37 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 0 2 7 2 3 3 -2 -3 -7 2 -1 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 239 287 296 223 248 223 219 214 225 226 238 244 272 275 270 268 259 SST (C) 28.3 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 26.8 26.2 25.6 25.3 25.1 25.1 24.7 24.6 23.8 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 150 154 154 154 153 148 123 116 109 107 104 103 100 100 96 80 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 6 700-500 MB RH 78 81 78 77 78 77 78 71 64 61 61 58 52 50 47 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 14 12 11 8 7 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 84 73 69 66 62 33 31 44 38 11 -9 -21 -45 -44 -53 -49 -33 200 MB DIV 53 76 80 92 112 101 155 157 91 40 15 -22 -21 -25 -4 -1 18 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -2 -1 -3 6 11 21 14 2 -4 0 0 0 0 -7 LAND (KM) 232 255 242 224 204 211 199 394 374 364 350 337 320 299 216 86 -7 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.9 10.5 11.1 11.7 13.3 15.3 17.7 20.0 21.9 23.4 24.5 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 16.5 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.5 20.4 19.9 19.1 18.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 7 7 9 12 12 11 8 8 5 4 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 16 16 17 20 19 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 36. 36. 36. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -11. -21. -29. -34. -38. -41. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -11. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 13. 8. -2. -10. -17. -20. -23. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 16.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 09/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.77 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -28.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 17.0% 10.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 18.8% 5.9% 2.1% 1.3% 6.1% 8.2% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 1.4% 13.3% 5.7% 3.7% 0.4% 2.2% 7.0% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 09/23/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 33 37 40 38 33 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 31 35 38 36 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 31 34 32 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 23 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT