* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 06/16/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 26 26 29 31 32 32 32 32 31 30 31 36 44 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 27 29 30 27 27 27 27 29 29 29 27 28 34 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 26 27 27 26 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 18 26 28 23 26 21 21 20 26 20 24 41 54 53 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 2 5 10 10 9 3 -2 -7 3 1 10 8 0 5 SHEAR DIR 291 277 267 285 301 293 296 268 270 256 281 253 235 201 208 235 259 SST (C) 28.5 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.5 29.0 28.0 25.7 24.8 27.1 25.4 23.1 21.9 19.2 13.8 11.3 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 152 149 142 143 152 137 113 107 130 114 99 95 85 76 74 75 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -52.2 -53.1 -53.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -53.2 -52.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 10 9 16 10 9 4 6 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 62 56 50 49 40 48 59 66 58 53 51 53 56 55 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 9 7 6 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 22 12 -41 -45 20 3 -36 -42 -40 -25 -17 5 36 30 35 -42 200 MB DIV 19 7 -10 4 -6 4 39 82 53 22 10 38 28 36 55 25 15 700-850 TADV 8 4 7 17 21 51 24 43 31 14 -7 -28 -19 -85 -30 -30 51 LAND (KM) -75 -4 65 100 87 32 -108 -228 -311 -11 238 738 910 682 922 1318 459 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 28.0 29.4 30.8 32.4 33.0 33.0 33.4 34.3 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.2 97.5 96.7 95.9 95.4 93.9 92.1 89.5 85.2 80.0 74.5 67.8 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 6 7 11 12 16 20 22 26 30 39 43 45 43 38 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 4 0 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 20. 22. 27. 32. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 6. 2. -0. -4. -6. -8. -12. -18. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -1. 1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 16. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.8 98.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 06/16/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.62 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -25.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.25 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902026 INVEST 06/16/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 06/16/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 27 29 30 27 27 27 27 29 29 29 27 28 34 41 18HR AGO 20 19 23 24 26 27 24 24 24 24 26 26 26 24 25 31 38 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 20 17 17 17 17 19 19 19 17 18 24 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT