* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 06/16/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 28 29 33 29 30 31 31 29 28 28 26 24 23 24 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 29 33 29 26 27 27 29 28 27 26 23 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 25 29 28 25 25 26 27 30 29 29 29 28 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 22 28 23 28 24 18 14 24 24 33 37 38 40 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 3 5 9 2 12 1 -3 -3 -4 -9 11 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 267 267 260 262 281 302 296 278 260 232 250 269 281 339 6 345 339 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.9 29.0 28.8 29.0 27.4 26.0 25.4 27.3 26.9 24.4 24.2 24.3 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 131 138 148 149 148 152 130 116 112 131 127 104 103 103 98 95 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 -55.5 -55.0 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 14 11 14 12 13 6 7 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 68 62 57 51 45 41 51 56 59 53 49 48 49 46 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 10 8 7 9 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 22 16 -33 22 14 30 -62 -52 -36 -32 -40 -64 -81 -93 -108 200 MB DIV 54 16 -1 -3 8 11 32 70 100 25 15 28 7 -26 -36 -25 -22 700-850 TADV 7 7 3 6 9 28 36 10 46 23 -1 14 -16 14 0 23 0 LAND (KM) -183 -131 -80 -28 12 22 4 -142 -187 -269 65 345 637 1010 1292 1390 1446 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.5 29.6 31.1 32.2 32.5 32.1 31.9 31.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.3 98.8 98.2 97.6 97.0 95.8 94.1 92.2 89.0 84.6 79.8 75.1 70.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 8 10 13 16 21 20 20 20 21 20 17 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -10. -15. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 9. 13. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.9 99.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 06/16/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.56 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.72 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 7.1% 5.5% 3.4% 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 2.4% 1.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902026 INVEST 06/16/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 06/16/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 29 33 29 26 27 27 29 28 27 26 23 23 23 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 25 29 25 22 23 23 25 24 23 22 19 19 19 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 20 24 20 17 18 18 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT