* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 06/16/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 19 23 23 27 30 34 37 36 37 35 35 35 35 37 37 V (KT) LAND 15 20 23 25 25 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 30 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 15 20 23 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 13 14 13 17 24 24 25 23 22 17 24 22 28 14 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 4 10 13 7 4 3 0 0 -3 -6 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 350 257 268 260 259 299 294 300 271 294 230 255 255 287 14 343 30 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.5 29.0 28.8 28.7 26.8 26.2 25.8 27.6 27.2 25.9 26.4 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 126 132 142 150 148 147 123 118 115 134 128 113 117 113 111 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -51.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 13 15 11 18 11 12 6 7 4 5 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 61 57 48 42 45 51 55 51 53 49 45 48 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 10 8 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 1 9 16 -28 40 67 13 -57 -73 -60 -30 -50 -65 -122 -104 200 MB DIV 54 46 19 2 -8 0 7 29 65 106 35 24 13 -65 -72 -55 -2 700-850 TADV 4 6 9 5 5 14 40 33 43 22 20 7 5 -1 5 14 5 LAND (KM) -256 -213 -172 -122 -62 0 -7 -54 -181 -193 -226 -4 300 535 673 751 846 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.7 29.9 31.4 32.1 32.2 31.5 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 99.6 99.2 98.7 98.1 97.3 96.1 94.7 92.5 89.4 85.2 81.3 77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 5 5 5 8 10 13 16 18 16 15 11 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 11 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. 23. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 1. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 21. 22. 20. 20. 20. 20. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 26.4 100.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 06/16/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.54 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.58 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 13.7% 8.6% 2.6% 0.6% 2.4% 2.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.6% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902026 INVEST 06/16/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 06/16/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 15 20 23 25 25 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 30 32 32 18HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT