* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 06/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 20 22 23 29 29 33 34 34 33 32 32 32 33 32 V (KT) LAND 15 20 23 25 25 26 27 31 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 15 20 23 25 26 26 27 29 28 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 12 15 12 18 18 22 25 32 9 28 20 21 9 17 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 3 6 3 11 2 3 1 3 -4 1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 348 240 248 259 258 284 317 309 295 301 253 249 274 280 307 311 95 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.2 26.8 27.2 27.8 27.9 27.2 26.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 115 118 120 131 147 147 148 139 122 126 133 133 126 123 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -52.6 -52.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 11 10 14 12 15 14 17 10 9 5 6 4 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 76 71 70 69 63 56 46 42 44 49 53 48 52 47 50 50 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 9 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 21 17 18 3 38 27 93 18 -30 -99 -84 -130 -125 -127 -48 200 MB DIV 61 63 70 21 3 19 22 4 44 130 59 6 25 -50 -22 31 21 700-850 TADV 3 1 5 4 4 9 6 37 26 29 10 13 4 2 3 12 17 LAND (KM) -360 -354 -333 -293 -253 -145 -44 53 -2 -73 -185 -140 -65 -66 -135 -141 33 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.7 29.0 30.4 31.5 31.6 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.0 100.8 100.4 100.0 98.9 97.9 96.5 95.3 93.7 91.9 89.4 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 3 4 4 4 6 7 10 9 10 9 7 6 8 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 5. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. 1. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 14. 14. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 17. 17. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 26.0 101.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 06/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.46 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.38 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 23.2% 15.2% 5.0% 1.3% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.9% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902026 INVEST 06/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 06/15/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 15 20 23 25 25 26 27 31 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 18HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT