* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082026 09/29/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 43 43 41 40 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 43 43 41 40 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 40 37 35 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 19 18 24 30 23 23 27 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 -3 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 296 306 319 339 340 306 279 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 127 129 127 128 128 126 115 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -56.0 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 43 41 41 48 53 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 15 14 13 11 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -21 -22 -28 -23 -28 -30 -31 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -9 2 -21 -49 -23 -5 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -11 0 0 6 12 8 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1346 1439 1534 1572 1610 1629 1654 1688 1723 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 35.0 34.4 34.2 34.0 34.2 34.8 35.7 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.8 45.7 44.7 44.2 43.8 42.9 41.2 39.1 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 7 4 4 6 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 2 2 7 10 6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.5 46.8 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082026 HANNA 09/29/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 1.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.45 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.28 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -6.9 -4.5 to -89.2 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 6.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082026 HANNA 09/29/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082026 HANNA 09/29/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 43 43 41 40 38 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 41 41 39 38 36 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 34 33 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 28 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT