* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912026 09/28/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 35 36 35 34 32 30 26 24 22 20 18 18 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 35 36 35 34 32 30 26 24 22 20 18 18 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 27 26 24 23 22 21 20 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 26 29 27 29 31 28 27 26 29 33 32 35 35 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 264 261 273 294 302 313 336 343 344 322 315 315 319 299 290 284 267 SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.3 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.7 26.4 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 119 118 129 131 129 125 119 114 109 116 121 121 123 125 123 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.4 -56.6 -56.9 -56.9 -57.0 -57.1 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 55 50 50 50 44 44 46 54 57 59 55 54 51 52 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -46 -45 -40 -20 -26 -26 -32 -48 -48 -45 -52 -25 -10 12 18 19 200 MB DIV 18 27 0 -35 -25 -16 -29 -50 -25 -36 -8 -19 -22 -16 -13 4 -8 700-850 TADV -5 -13 -15 -3 -7 -3 9 8 10 6 3 -4 -8 -9 -10 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1115 1138 1246 1378 1494 1714 1841 1951 2069 2043 1887 1779 1720 1673 1651 1606 1538 LAT (DEG N) 36.7 36.8 36.3 35.6 35.0 33.8 33.4 33.3 33.4 33.3 32.9 32.1 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.3 49.3 47.3 45.6 44.2 41.9 40.1 38.2 36.0 34.0 32.4 31.5 31.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 14 13 9 8 9 9 8 6 6 7 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 1 3 11 14 10 2 1 0 2 6 6 9 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. -0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.7 51.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912026 INVEST 09/28/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.34 0.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.36 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 7.0% 6.0% 2.9% 0.0% 6.3% 3.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912026 INVEST 09/28/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912026 INVEST 09/28/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 32 33 35 36 35 34 32 30 26 24 22 20 18 18 19 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 33 32 31 29 27 23 21 19 17 15 15 16 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 30 29 28 26 24 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 23 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT