* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912026 09/28/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 35 32 31 30 33 38 36 31 28 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 35 32 31 30 33 38 36 31 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 28 27 25 25 25 26 25 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 22 25 26 26 32 28 31 27 27 24 24 28 31 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 276 266 268 277 294 310 328 339 342 335 323 314 304 295 282 266 272 SST (C) 26.8 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.8 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 117 119 124 131 129 125 119 116 115 117 119 119 122 120 118 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -56.5 -56.7 -56.5 -56.8 -57.0 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 60 56 52 52 49 46 47 52 57 58 55 53 49 48 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 11 10 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -47 -41 -42 -41 -27 -32 -35 -39 -53 -44 -45 -39 -14 2 19 21 200 MB DIV -14 7 15 -7 -30 -11 -31 -31 -49 -18 -29 -8 0 -7 -3 0 -1 700-850 TADV 5 -5 -2 -11 -10 -4 2 10 10 8 8 3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1147 1093 1140 1263 1392 1648 1834 1955 2075 2096 1924 1766 1659 1588 1536 1479 1378 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.9 36.8 36.2 35.5 34.1 33.2 32.9 32.8 32.7 32.4 31.7 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.1 51.3 49.2 47.1 45.5 42.7 40.6 38.8 36.8 34.8 33.0 31.5 30.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 16 14 12 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 2 1 2 2 9 13 10 1 2 2 2 5 5 9 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 4. 1. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -0. 3. 8. 6. 1. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.3 53.1 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912026 INVEST 09/28/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.36 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -27.9 -4.5 to -89.2 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 8.7% 7.7% 4.0% 0.0% 7.3% 4.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.7% 3.0% 1.4% 0.0% 2.6% 1.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.4% 2.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912026 INVEST 09/28/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912026 INVEST 09/28/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 35 32 31 30 33 38 36 31 28 29 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 33 32 29 28 27 30 35 33 28 25 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 29 28 25 24 23 26 31 29 24 21 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 22 21 18 17 16 19 24 22 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT