* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912026 09/28/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 34 34 34 32 30 27 26 25 24 22 21 21 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 34 34 34 32 30 27 26 25 24 22 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 31 30 29 28 26 25 24 22 22 21 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 17 19 20 22 29 31 36 31 34 34 30 29 31 39 40 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 2 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 272 277 278 278 283 314 320 344 335 337 330 327 314 293 276 262 251 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.0 26.0 26.2 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.6 26.6 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 123 116 116 118 131 130 127 119 119 111 113 116 116 118 118 117 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 -56.3 -56.7 -56.6 -56.9 -56.7 -56.8 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 65 61 57 52 51 47 48 49 57 60 57 53 52 50 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -62 -46 -41 -45 -20 -29 -27 -33 -33 -37 -19 -2 15 23 65 66 200 MB DIV 30 15 3 14 -5 -26 -17 -31 -35 -21 -36 -2 -23 -17 -4 9 11 700-850 TADV 3 15 11 6 0 -1 4 15 14 16 13 9 -3 -7 -3 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1182 1090 1059 1119 1243 1507 1724 1872 2005 2135 1939 1748 1583 1496 1460 1458 1445 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 36.8 37.2 37.0 36.4 35.0 33.9 33.4 33.2 33.2 33.1 32.5 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 53.5 51.4 49.2 47.1 43.9 41.5 39.5 37.4 35.2 32.9 31.0 29.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 13 10 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 1 0 2 6 12 12 2 4 0 0 2 2 4 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 16 CX,CY: 10/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -17. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.7 55.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912026 INVEST 09/28/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 30.0 to 152.9 0.37 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 9.3% 7.1% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912026 INVEST 09/28/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912026 INVEST 09/28/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 33 34 34 34 32 30 27 26 25 24 22 21 21 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 32 32 32 30 28 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 28 28 26 24 21 20 19 18 16 15 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 22 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT