* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912026 09/27/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 36 37 37 38 38 38 35 33 31 32 33 34 35 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 36 37 37 38 38 38 35 33 31 32 33 34 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 37 37 36 34 32 30 29 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 9 15 19 20 23 24 34 28 34 28 28 17 19 20 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 0 0 -1 -3 2 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 243 267 275 275 277 298 315 332 339 335 333 331 315 288 282 282 282 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 26.7 26.1 26.2 27.2 27.5 27.4 26.8 26.8 25.9 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 123 118 119 128 131 128 121 121 112 119 119 119 122 128 130 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 61 65 63 58 53 50 48 49 54 57 55 54 53 51 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -56 -67 -58 -53 -44 -29 -45 -38 -44 -48 -37 -28 -37 -19 -4 20 200 MB DIV 33 32 -5 -4 1 -54 -8 -44 -26 -30 -35 -16 -15 -14 -14 -22 -17 700-850 TADV -2 0 11 7 6 1 5 13 16 17 14 8 0 -8 -8 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 1278 1176 1102 1098 1177 1460 1695 1879 1998 2142 1999 1826 1699 1638 1630 1669 1720 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.8 36.7 36.9 36.6 35.1 33.9 33.1 32.9 32.7 32.5 31.9 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.1 54.9 53.1 50.9 48.6 44.8 42.1 39.9 38.0 35.8 33.8 32.1 31.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 15 12 8 9 9 9 7 6 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 1 1 3 9 12 4 4 0 4 5 4 7 14 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 19 CX,CY: 8/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.4 56.1 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912026 INVEST 09/27/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.40 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 13.8% 9.9% 9.3% 4.7% 10.1% 9.2% 8.4% Logistic: 2.4% 7.5% 4.3% 1.1% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 7.1% 4.7% 3.4% 1.6% 3.9% 3.2% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912026 INVEST 09/27/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912026 INVEST 09/27/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 34 36 37 37 38 38 38 35 33 31 32 33 34 35 38 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 33 34 34 34 31 29 27 28 29 30 31 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 29 30 30 30 27 25 23 24 25 26 27 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 22 22 22 19 17 15 16 17 18 19 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT