* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912026 09/27/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 39 40 41 42 42 42 39 37 35 35 35 36 38 41 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 39 40 41 42 42 42 39 37 35 35 35 36 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 40 42 43 44 44 43 41 38 35 34 33 33 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 15 19 21 23 28 34 31 32 29 22 17 21 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 2 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 248 275 266 273 275 284 315 321 342 333 337 332 325 294 285 281 280 SST (C) 27.9 27.1 27.3 26.7 26.2 26.7 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 128 130 124 119 123 134 130 126 119 117 116 117 119 120 124 129 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 6 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 57 62 64 64 55 52 47 49 50 56 56 55 53 55 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -116 -69 -53 -65 -57 -49 -22 -34 -37 -39 -40 -45 -25 -28 -17 -14 16 200 MB DIV 32 37 32 -4 -4 -20 -18 -21 -33 -45 -36 -36 -11 -18 -24 -24 -18 700-850 TADV 4 -2 1 13 8 -4 3 6 13 13 16 9 4 -6 -10 -7 -10 LAND (KM) 1382 1243 1154 1102 1096 1318 1579 1786 1929 2052 2121 1930 1775 1673 1642 1648 1697 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.6 35.9 36.7 36.9 35.8 34.4 33.4 32.9 32.8 32.6 32.3 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.3 56.6 55.2 53.3 51.0 46.7 43.6 41.2 39.3 37.2 35.1 33.1 31.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 18 18 17 13 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 6 7 7 2 4 7 11 11 1 4 2 3 6 6 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 19 CX,CY: 6/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 9. 7. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.9 57.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912026 INVEST 09/27/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.43 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 16.7% 11.4% 10.5% 5.4% 11.7% 12.2% 11.9% Logistic: 5.9% 15.8% 9.2% 1.6% 0.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 10.8% 6.9% 4.1% 1.9% 4.9% 4.3% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912026 INVEST 09/27/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912026 INVEST 09/27/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 39 40 41 42 42 42 39 37 35 35 35 36 38 41 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 36 37 37 37 34 32 30 30 30 31 33 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 31 31 31 28 26 24 24 24 25 27 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 23 23 20 18 16 16 16 17 19 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT