* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072026 09/26/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 28 25 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 47 45 46 46 37 31 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -8 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 242 242 241 243 251 253 257 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 120 119 118 116 116 117 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 47 44 37 33 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 16 16 15 11 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 67 50 53 59 29 30 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 29 24 32 27 -17 -26 -16 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 25 10 7 5 2 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 677 682 691 707 725 745 777 830 913 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -22. -29. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.0 23.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072026 GONZALO 09/26/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.32 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.35 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 15.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072026 GONZALO 09/26/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 30 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 31 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT