* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072026 09/25/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 41 40 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 41 40 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 43 41 35 28 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 25 31 40 48 44 38 28 29 34 40 42 47 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 5 3 1 0 -4 -3 -7 -7 -6 -3 0 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 234 241 240 235 231 232 232 238 241 245 239 249 254 270 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.7 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 131 132 132 120 116 114 114 114 112 116 116 114 113 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 60 57 46 36 29 24 23 25 26 27 28 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 21 20 22 18 16 12 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 95 94 61 76 79 90 87 68 48 23 22 10 5 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 95 93 29 17 26 23 -24 -39 -11 -15 -25 -17 -26 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 10 6 6 17 8 6 1 2 1 2 2 3 0 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 545 576 620 667 721 758 770 766 788 793 797 860 972 1024 1027 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.8 19.3 20.3 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.3 22.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.5 24.1 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.6 25.2 26.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 3 3 2 2 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 3 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -22. -27. -33. -38. -41. -44. -48. -51. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -7. -12. -19. -26. -30. -34. -36. -38. -38. -38. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -5. -14. -22. -30. -37. -40. -45. -47. -49. -54. -55. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 22.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072026 GONZALO 09/25/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.19 0.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.58 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.42 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -17.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072026 GONZALO 09/25/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 41 40 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 40 39 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT