* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072026 09/25/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 45 44 42 37 30 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 45 44 42 37 30 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 45 43 39 32 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 19 24 29 41 44 38 37 32 36 42 45 48 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 4 6 5 1 -2 -3 -3 -10 -5 -7 -4 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 248 241 247 243 231 233 236 237 235 245 243 246 253 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 134 127 123 121 118 116 116 116 119 119 117 118 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 64 61 53 41 34 26 24 22 23 27 28 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 23 21 20 20 17 13 10 8 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 101 101 66 81 74 80 64 49 31 23 18 8 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 93 94 85 30 21 -14 -1 -9 -27 -4 -41 -12 -21 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 8 8 0 0 14 6 2 0 2 2 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 527 558 598 623 657 765 763 771 789 808 849 924 1049 1128 1186 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.5 18.1 19.5 20.2 20.4 20.7 21.3 21.7 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.2 25.9 27.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 2 2 2 3 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 6 4 3 4 3 2 4 6 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -41. -44. -49. -53. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -32. -33. -32. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -10. -18. -25. -29. -34. -37. -39. -43. -43. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 22.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072026 GONZALO 09/25/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 1.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.45 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.45 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -22.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 13.1% 9.3% 7.6% 3.4% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.8% 3.3% 2.7% 1.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.9% 3.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072026 GONZALO 09/25/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 45 44 42 37 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 39 37 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT