* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/21/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 61 65 72 73 76 75 77 89 89 93 96 100 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 61 65 72 73 76 75 77 89 89 93 96 100 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 47 49 54 59 63 65 68 70 74 80 85 89 91 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 12 11 13 10 11 11 20 17 18 19 20 17 21 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 2 6 8 4 -2 0 6 4 2 -1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 273 287 290 265 271 286 252 277 291 292 278 289 276 279 256 249 237 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 170 169 169 168 168 167 167 166 167 167 166 166 167 167 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 76 78 80 81 78 72 63 61 54 45 40 36 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 15 18 19 21 20 23 22 23 32 33 37 41 47 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 45 48 64 87 96 127 147 167 176 186 193 153 122 67 44 200 MB DIV 74 73 87 84 89 133 105 145 46 67 61 43 6 -18 -9 8 28 700-850 TADV -5 -1 2 1 3 6 7 4 4 1 1 -3 -3 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 202 209 204 240 287 316 250 208 166 127 103 102 129 117 104 104 77 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 57 59 62 65 67 71 75 76 78 76 75 75 77 77 76 75 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 32. 34. 37. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 8. 11. 10. 10. 22. 20. 25. 28. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 25. 32. 33. 36. 35. 37. 49. 49. 53. 56. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.0 69.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/21/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.82 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 16.4% 10.7% 7.5% 5.8% 11.7% 14.3% 26.7% Logistic: 1.6% 8.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 2.2% 5.1% 11.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.2% Consensus: 1.7% 8.7% 4.4% 2.8% 2.1% 4.8% 6.8% 13.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 29.0% 17.0% 13.0% 6.0% 15.0% 5.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.8% 18.8% 10.7% 7.9% 4.0% 9.9% 5.9% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/21/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/21/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 53 61 65 72 73 76 75 77 89 89 93 96 100 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 49 57 61 68 69 72 71 73 85 85 89 92 96 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 51 55 62 63 66 65 67 79 79 83 86 90 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 42 46 53 54 57 56 58 70 70 74 77 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT