* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/21/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 45 54 61 67 70 68 74 73 79 85 91 92 96 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 45 54 61 67 70 68 74 73 79 85 91 92 96 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 44 49 53 55 57 61 65 70 77 82 86 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 16 10 10 12 8 14 15 18 17 18 16 20 18 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 3 4 6 0 0 3 8 3 -3 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 269 273 285 265 271 263 262 278 290 272 282 269 276 263 250 232 SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 170 169 168 168 167 167 167 166 166 167 167 166 167 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 73 76 79 81 80 73 69 61 58 51 46 39 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 14 13 17 19 22 22 20 23 23 27 31 37 38 43 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 36 44 54 73 95 101 141 160 179 172 180 170 126 89 55 200 MB DIV 78 79 75 80 87 103 112 103 121 47 54 22 22 -6 -21 -23 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -2 3 2 4 6 9 2 4 0 -1 -5 1 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 249 225 230 229 253 326 261 205 151 126 110 111 121 132 103 86 87 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 58 58 59 62 65 69 71 74 74 75 76 76 76 77 79 79 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 10. 10. 8. 12. 11. 15. 19. 25. 25. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 10. 19. 26. 32. 35. 33. 39. 38. 44. 50. 56. 57. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.1 68.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/21/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.86 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.9% 10.2% 7.0% 5.6% 11.2% 13.7% 25.5% Logistic: 1.4% 7.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 1.5% 4.1% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% Consensus: 1.1% 8.2% 4.3% 2.7% 2.0% 4.3% 6.1% 11.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.5% 8.6% 4.1% 2.3% 1.5% 4.6% 4.0% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/21/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/21/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 43 45 54 61 67 70 68 74 73 79 85 91 92 96 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 52 59 65 68 66 72 71 77 83 89 90 94 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 46 53 59 62 60 66 65 71 77 83 84 88 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 36 43 49 52 50 56 55 61 67 73 74 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT