* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/20/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 46 51 58 65 65 64 68 70 76 83 88 90 91 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 46 51 58 65 65 64 68 70 76 83 88 90 81 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 42 46 50 50 50 52 55 59 65 70 73 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 21 19 14 16 13 17 16 23 18 19 23 23 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 0 0 5 8 7 -3 0 4 5 1 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 285 259 262 276 280 278 274 259 268 269 268 266 265 271 275 251 237 SST (C) 29.7 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 172 171 171 170 170 169 169 167 165 166 167 167 167 167 167 168 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 73 74 78 82 81 75 68 64 58 48 41 39 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 15 16 19 22 21 21 23 24 27 33 37 38 41 850 MB ENV VOR 32 42 43 45 54 65 94 102 126 148 170 174 199 185 134 117 50 200 MB DIV 60 95 94 86 101 104 127 101 135 29 54 44 15 -12 -7 -7 12 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -7 0 3 4 4 8 4 4 4 -2 -4 -3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 284 228 223 215 217 322 272 210 156 142 161 141 88 57 71 71 -2 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 8 6 5 4 2 0 0 2 2 1 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 57 58 59 60 63 69 76 80 80 79 80 79 76 77 80 81 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 815 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 38. 40. 41. 43. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 11. 10. 9. 12. 12. 16. 22. 26. 25. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 30. 30. 29. 33. 35. 41. 48. 53. 55. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 68.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/20/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.86 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 17.3% 11.2% 7.9% 6.1% 11.7% 13.5% 23.5% Logistic: 3.2% 11.9% 4.4% 2.9% 1.5% 5.5% 6.0% 8.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% Consensus: 2.4% 10.6% 5.4% 3.6% 2.6% 5.9% 6.6% 10.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 8.0% SDCON: 2.7% 9.8% 4.2% 2.3% 1.8% 4.4% 4.3% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/20/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/20/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 46 51 58 65 65 64 68 70 76 83 88 90 81 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 43 48 55 62 62 61 65 67 73 80 85 87 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 43 50 57 57 56 60 62 68 75 80 82 73 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 41 48 48 47 51 53 59 66 71 73 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT