* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/20/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 52 59 66 67 66 69 74 75 82 85 83 80 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 52 59 66 67 66 44 34 36 43 46 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 46 49 52 53 55 39 32 34 39 45 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 11 13 18 18 16 13 9 15 21 24 16 16 20 17 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 3 2 -1 5 5 7 2 -2 2 1 4 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 281 282 244 258 273 270 282 266 267 278 280 269 295 293 281 229 246 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 172 167 172 171 171 169 168 169 170 170 169 167 166 166 161 158 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 71 72 76 80 82 82 80 77 75 72 70 69 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 12 13 14 17 19 19 18 21 24 25 31 36 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 22 29 44 43 47 68 79 89 96 118 129 135 143 152 167 165 168 200 MB DIV 50 69 97 95 81 90 119 81 93 122 81 147 167 142 150 117 141 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -9 -3 0 3 5 5 11 12 10 2 5 5 9 3 4 LAND (KM) 374 325 271 247 230 287 308 243 140 13 -38 -31 9 121 225 413 607 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.7 19.0 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.5 68.0 69.2 70.3 71.3 72.8 73.4 73.4 72.9 71.8 70.9 69.9 69.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 10 9 5 3 4 7 7 6 4 6 7 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 57 61 61 60 62 68 71 69 68 74 72 65 61 63 68 55 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 39. 42. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 8. 11. 16. 15. 22. 27. 24. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 31. 32. 31. 34. 39. 40. 47. 50. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 66.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/20/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.87 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 15.1% 9.7% 6.7% 5.1% 10.9% 13.3% 24.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 4.5% 6.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% Consensus: 1.7% 6.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.8% 4.3% 6.5% 10.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.8% 5.9% 2.9% 1.7% 0.9% 2.6% 3.7% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/20/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/20/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 52 59 66 67 66 44 34 36 43 46 44 41 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 49 56 63 64 63 41 31 33 40 43 41 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 43 50 57 58 57 35 25 27 34 37 35 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 41 48 49 48 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT