* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/20/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 48 56 63 66 64 66 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 48 56 63 66 55 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 44 46 42 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 11 10 16 14 13 9 15 21 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 2 3 0 5 3 6 5 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 292 313 268 266 282 278 285 265 270 280 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 164 164 171 171 170 169 169 170 170 167 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 8 7 9 6 6 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 71 72 74 78 82 82 82 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 11 12 14 16 18 19 18 20 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 30 35 42 44 52 66 78 74 101 102 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 40 67 105 99 97 88 123 71 130 92 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -7 -1 4 8 6 14 17 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 244 254 210 176 138 162 244 261 135 -17 -73 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.5 16.7 18.2 19.2 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.1 66.7 67.9 68.8 69.7 71.4 72.2 72.4 72.2 71.7 71.0 70.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 10 9 9 7 5 5 7 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 45 49 52 53 59 65 65 65 77 70 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 9. 11. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 33. 36. 34. 36. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 65.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/20/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.89 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.7% 10.0% 6.9% 5.5% 10.8% 12.8% 24.0% Logistic: 4.3% 20.5% 9.2% 6.1% 3.3% 10.5% 16.1% 19.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 6.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8% 3.5% 1.6% Consensus: 2.4% 14.3% 6.9% 4.4% 3.0% 7.7% 10.8% 15.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 6.0% SDCON: 2.7% 12.6% 5.9% 3.2% 2.0% 5.8% 6.9% 10.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/20/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/20/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 40 48 56 63 66 55 38 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 46 54 61 64 53 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 48 55 58 47 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 39 46 49 38 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT