* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/20/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 40 46 53 59 63 68 71 72 78 84 86 92 90 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 40 46 53 59 63 68 62 43 34 37 40 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 38 40 44 49 55 37 31 34 40 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 15 17 20 17 12 9 14 13 23 13 17 11 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 1 4 0 -2 0 2 5 5 -4 5 2 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 254 260 279 285 269 289 284 298 285 265 288 293 276 300 283 270 196 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.7 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 173 169 164 164 171 170 169 169 170 168 167 168 168 168 169 160 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 69 68 68 70 74 79 82 85 85 80 76 72 73 75 78 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 9 10 12 13 15 16 20 23 23 26 30 33 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR 6 14 23 28 33 33 58 52 76 94 117 144 170 177 162 170 190 200 MB DIV 34 42 41 59 79 75 109 98 86 110 143 68 110 159 163 205 154 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -6 -7 0 4 2 4 11 6 7 -3 0 1 6 -1 LAND (KM) 185 250 289 299 267 200 249 263 192 97 0 -50 -41 29 52 120 414 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.3 18.2 18.6 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.5 65.8 67.0 68.0 70.0 71.5 72.2 72.4 72.3 72.0 71.8 71.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 11 10 9 6 4 5 6 3 1 3 6 11 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 54 49 49 52 55 57 63 65 65 69 80 81 77 69 65 65 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 42. 46. 47. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -11. -12. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 16. 16. 18. 22. 25. 29. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 16. 23. 29. 33. 38. 41. 42. 48. 54. 56. 62. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 62.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/20/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.89 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 17.4% 11.3% 8.0% 6.4% 11.1% 13.0% 24.8% Logistic: 5.2% 21.5% 10.8% 5.2% 2.7% 5.7% 7.0% 12.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 7.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% Consensus: 3.0% 15.6% 7.9% 4.5% 3.1% 5.9% 6.9% 13.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% SDCON: 2.5% 9.8% 4.9% 2.7% 1.5% 3.4% 3.4% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/20/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/20/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 37 40 46 53 59 63 68 62 43 34 37 40 45 44 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 38 44 51 57 61 66 60 41 32 35 38 43 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 39 46 52 56 61 55 36 27 30 33 38 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 36 42 46 51 45 26 17 20 23 28 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT