* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/19/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 33 37 43 47 54 60 68 77 84 88 85 91 91 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 33 37 43 47 54 60 68 77 84 88 85 91 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 34 38 45 52 59 65 71 78 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 22 24 18 23 23 22 9 5 6 6 15 13 10 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 1 7 15 4 -1 1 5 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 282 256 262 277 284 283 298 299 316 297 269 304 318 299 306 273 250 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.1 29.8 29.7 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 173 167 165 172 171 170 168 168 168 168 167 168 169 171 170 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 10 7 8 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 66 69 68 69 75 77 82 84 85 82 80 76 77 78 83 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 10 10 13 15 20 24 27 29 27 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR -8 5 10 16 21 27 41 57 73 82 99 121 135 149 141 132 134 200 MB DIV 32 29 39 26 55 77 91 113 91 114 152 132 91 85 150 156 188 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -7 -6 -6 2 2 2 6 8 3 0 -2 3 8 11 LAND (KM) 53 211 277 306 280 180 184 295 327 272 204 213 218 221 183 134 -31 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.2 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.4 63.2 64.8 66.2 67.5 69.8 71.9 73.4 74.2 74.2 73.9 73.3 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 13 12 11 9 6 4 3 3 2 2 3 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 50 51 54 56 62 70 77 77 73 69 67 65 64 66 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 40. 44. 47. 48. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 18. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 24. 30. 38. 47. 54. 58. 55. 61. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 61.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/19/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.89 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.0% 9.1% 6.6% 5.3% 9.9% 11.0% 21.7% Logistic: 3.2% 10.8% 4.8% 2.8% 1.5% 5.5% 9.5% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 2.5% Consensus: 1.8% 9.4% 4.8% 3.2% 2.3% 5.3% 7.1% 12.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 5.2% 2.4% 1.6% 1.1% 2.6% 3.5% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/19/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/19/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 33 37 43 47 54 60 68 77 84 88 85 91 74 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 31 35 41 45 52 58 66 75 82 86 83 89 72 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 32 38 42 49 55 63 72 79 83 80 86 69 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 32 36 43 49 57 66 73 77 74 80 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT