* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/19/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 33 38 43 48 49 53 60 67 78 86 81 85 86 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 33 38 43 48 49 53 60 67 78 86 81 85 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 38 44 53 62 69 74 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 16 19 22 23 25 25 18 8 6 5 15 12 18 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 -1 1 6 10 6 0 0 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 272 247 258 278 288 293 302 320 322 316 345 327 333 324 320 304 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.6 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 170 171 163 172 171 170 168 167 169 169 169 168 167 168 168 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 9 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 66 68 71 71 71 75 80 82 85 84 81 81 78 78 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 4 5 8 9 10 10 13 16 18 23 27 25 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -10 3 15 17 26 38 62 65 95 96 108 118 123 122 112 113 200 MB DIV 33 38 36 39 33 68 91 102 96 92 99 102 79 147 114 127 135 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -9 -10 -7 -6 -2 4 2 5 7 4 6 1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 52 73 241 307 318 214 181 238 317 338 293 256 217 203 215 203 122 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 61.8 63.5 65.1 66.5 68.9 71.1 72.8 73.8 74.1 73.7 72.7 71.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 19 16 15 13 11 9 8 3 2 4 5 4 3 2 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 56 51 52 56 59 66 72 75 73 66 64 65 66 67 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 818 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 32. 36. 41. 45. 48. 49. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 10. 16. 20. 16. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 19. 23. 30. 37. 48. 56. 51. 55. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 59.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/19/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.91 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 15.7% 10.3% 7.6% 6.0% 10.3% 10.8% 19.7% Logistic: 3.6% 10.5% 5.4% 3.2% 1.4% 5.6% 7.1% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% Consensus: 2.4% 11.0% 5.8% 3.7% 2.5% 5.5% 6.0% 11.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 6.0% 3.4% 1.8% 1.2% 2.7% 3.0% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/19/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/19/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 33 38 43 48 49 53 60 67 78 86 81 85 86 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 31 36 41 46 47 51 58 65 76 84 79 83 84 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 33 38 43 44 48 55 62 73 81 76 80 81 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 32 37 38 42 49 56 67 75 70 74 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT