* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/19/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 30 33 40 47 51 55 62 69 76 81 81 85 89 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 30 33 40 47 51 55 62 68 76 81 81 85 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 30 30 30 31 32 33 34 37 41 47 55 63 72 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 15 19 16 23 23 23 12 7 7 11 13 11 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 4 1 -2 -1 -2 3 5 10 2 -1 0 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 277 274 277 245 250 279 287 304 303 333 341 323 348 335 312 312 282 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.0 29.7 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 171 170 168 171 165 172 171 169 168 168 169 169 168 167 168 166 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 8 8 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 65 68 69 75 76 81 83 85 83 80 78 79 78 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 6 9 11 13 14 17 19 20 22 23 26 30 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -29 -16 -3 8 16 29 48 62 80 89 93 109 119 129 130 146 200 MB DIV 29 26 33 28 44 53 73 109 116 104 74 128 118 75 106 147 160 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -10 -11 -12 -8 -3 2 5 6 6 8 4 4 1 4 6 LAND (KM) 217 22 24 210 341 324 213 205 295 337 282 216 195 128 96 50 35 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 59.7 61.5 63.2 64.7 67.4 69.8 71.8 73.4 74.0 74.1 73.7 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 17 16 14 12 11 9 6 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 57 56 58 59 57 57 58 63 70 75 76 72 67 65 65 66 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 820 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 32. 36. 41. 45. 48. 49. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 14. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 10. 17. 21. 25. 32. 39. 46. 51. 51. 55. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 57.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/19/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.90 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 14.4% 9.4% 7.0% 5.5% 10.0% 10.7% 19.6% Logistic: 3.6% 10.0% 5.3% 3.9% 1.9% 9.2% 10.4% 16.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 2.6% Consensus: 2.3% 9.1% 5.2% 3.6% 2.5% 6.6% 7.1% 13.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 5.0% 3.1% 1.8% 1.2% 3.3% 3.5% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/19/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/19/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 30 33 40 47 51 55 62 68 76 81 81 85 89 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 29 32 39 46 50 54 61 67 75 80 80 84 88 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 29 36 43 47 51 58 64 72 77 77 81 85 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 22 29 36 40 44 51 57 65 70 70 74 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT