* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/19/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 31 36 43 48 52 57 64 68 71 70 72 69 V (KT) LAND 30 30 26 30 30 31 36 43 48 52 57 64 68 71 70 72 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 34 37 39 43 45 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 14 15 23 17 27 24 18 14 15 20 27 22 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 1 2 0 0 -3 -1 2 0 2 0 -4 1 3 8 SHEAR DIR 288 277 279 278 257 274 268 299 304 313 302 301 303 314 316 312 306 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 164 169 166 166 171 171 172 170 168 167 168 168 167 167 167 167 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 63 66 68 71 75 80 82 86 85 82 79 78 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 14 17 18 20 21 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -27 -35 -23 -11 12 23 25 46 56 90 90 110 123 149 154 154 200 MB DIV 38 27 15 29 21 38 87 79 107 87 83 82 75 85 67 140 130 700-850 TADV -18 -14 -14 -13 -13 -8 -10 -1 5 6 3 8 9 6 1 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 472 220 -3 11 183 386 309 269 296 263 227 183 154 140 149 168 206 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.1 57.4 59.5 61.3 62.9 65.9 68.4 70.7 72.5 73.5 73.7 73.7 73.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 19 17 16 13 12 10 7 3 2 3 3 2 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 50 57 57 58 60 58 62 62 67 71 72 72 69 68 66 65 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 839 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 32. 36. 41. 45. 48. 49. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -22. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 18. 22. 27. 34. 38. 41. 40. 42. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 55.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/19/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.87 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 12.4% 7.9% 5.7% 4.6% 8.9% 10.7% 20.2% Logistic: 2.8% 7.1% 3.8% 1.8% 0.7% 2.9% 5.3% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% Consensus: 1.7% 7.3% 4.3% 2.5% 1.8% 4.1% 5.5% 10.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/19/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/19/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 26 30 30 31 36 43 48 52 57 64 68 71 70 72 70 18HR AGO 30 29 25 29 29 30 35 42 47 51 56 63 67 70 69 71 69 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 30 31 36 43 48 52 57 64 68 71 70 72 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 26 33 38 42 47 54 58 61 60 62 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT