* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/18/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 33 36 39 42 42 47 57 67 69 70 73 71 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 32 33 36 39 42 42 47 57 67 69 70 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 30 30 31 34 38 44 50 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 17 19 17 23 21 26 29 24 11 6 8 16 20 13 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 3 7 0 -3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 287 283 273 281 284 256 286 288 309 304 303 276 321 321 325 316 319 SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.9 29.6 29.9 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 164 164 171 165 169 167 172 171 170 168 167 167 167 167 167 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 9 10 8 8 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 60 61 67 68 75 76 82 84 83 78 77 74 75 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 11 16 19 19 20 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -26 -29 -38 -23 2 15 20 32 55 67 93 107 120 131 150 155 200 MB DIV 44 39 15 -5 28 27 75 74 87 93 109 112 150 76 100 124 120 700-850 TADV -13 -20 -14 -14 -11 -10 -9 -5 0 3 2 4 6 2 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 722 471 243 38 23 310 351 221 237 334 271 238 193 186 149 143 139 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.8 55.1 57.2 59.1 60.9 64.1 66.9 69.4 71.6 73.2 74.0 74.1 73.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 20 18 17 15 13 12 10 7 3 2 2 2 1 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 56 58 58 58 57 58 64 71 76 76 74 71 70 71 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 902 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 33. 37. 41. 45. 49. 50. 53. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -10. -16. -20. -19. -18. -19. -21. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 5. 10. 8. 9. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 17. 27. 37. 39. 40. 43. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 52.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/18/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.86 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 15.1% 10.1% 7.4% 5.7% 10.2% 11.1% 19.1% Logistic: 2.2% 5.7% 3.3% 1.3% 0.3% 1.9% 3.0% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% Consensus: 1.9% 7.7% 4.8% 2.9% 2.0% 4.1% 4.9% 8.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/18/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/18/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 32 33 36 39 42 42 47 57 67 69 70 73 71 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 31 34 37 40 40 45 55 65 67 68 71 69 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 31 34 37 37 42 52 62 64 65 68 66 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 25 28 31 31 36 46 56 58 59 62 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT