* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 10/18/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 37 39 46 47 47 47 51 56 60 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 37 39 46 47 47 47 51 56 60 61 64 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 33 33 33 35 39 43 48 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 17 19 17 22 15 24 24 18 7 9 11 17 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 1 5 -6 7 0 SHEAR DIR 275 283 288 284 291 273 266 267 301 298 298 289 284 295 319 312 322 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.6 30.1 29.7 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 163 165 169 164 173 165 172 171 170 168 168 167 167 169 169 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 63 60 63 66 67 72 77 81 84 81 77 73 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -16 -14 -16 -20 -1 12 24 19 39 33 67 78 81 87 129 146 200 MB DIV 16 40 48 0 -8 17 40 63 73 96 95 90 118 112 71 92 107 700-850 TADV -5 -12 -18 -14 -13 -8 -6 -5 -3 2 1 1 4 2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 771 715 615 413 220 58 260 306 200 239 281 205 133 76 45 42 72 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.9 53.9 55.8 57.7 61.2 64.3 66.9 69.4 71.4 72.8 73.2 73.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 19 18 16 14 13 12 9 6 4 4 2 1 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 45 48 50 57 53 51 52 57 63 68 69 70 73 78 77 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 38. 43. 47. 50. 51. 54. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -13. -17. -17. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 9. 16. 17. 17. 18. 21. 26. 30. 31. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 49.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 10/18/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.85 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 14.8% 9.9% 7.3% 5.6% 10.3% 11.2% 20.2% Logistic: 4.8% 8.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.9% 4.4% 7.7% 9.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 13.8% 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% Consensus: 3.4% 12.4% 7.2% 3.4% 2.3% 5.9% 7.1% 10.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 10/18/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 10/18/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 34 37 39 46 47 47 47 51 56 60 61 64 65 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 34 36 43 44 44 44 48 53 57 58 61 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 32 39 40 40 40 44 49 53 54 57 58 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 25 32 33 33 33 37 42 46 47 50 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT