* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 08/11/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 54 65 74 81 89 94 98 99 100 99 99 104 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 54 65 74 81 89 94 98 99 100 99 99 104 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 46 54 63 72 79 83 85 85 82 80 81 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 11 6 8 6 6 12 16 22 23 27 18 13 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -5 0 -4 -2 0 0 -4 -2 0 -3 5 9 8 9 SHEAR DIR 67 72 89 101 78 61 11 346 304 291 291 285 289 305 316 341 275 SST (C) 25.7 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 120 119 120 119 120 124 127 132 138 141 150 152 151 149 152 156 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 62 59 60 58 59 58 56 56 57 60 64 66 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 12 14 15 17 18 19 21 24 26 27 29 30 31 35 850 MB ENV VOR 96 103 118 121 118 114 83 69 47 32 24 9 -8 -13 -14 6 27 200 MB DIV 39 67 62 52 20 8 2 -23 6 34 32 47 21 21 0 26 38 700-850 TADV 2 -2 0 0 5 0 5 4 2 4 3 1 4 12 14 14 19 LAND (KM) 1081 1288 1495 1686 1879 2019 1804 1654 1430 1223 972 730 604 597 644 794 1003 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 18 18 16 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 9 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 4 7 12 17 23 27 30 28 37 40 33 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 35. 44. 51. 59. 65. 68. 69. 70. 69. 69. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 27.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 08/11/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 14.4% 9.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 21.6% 10.4% 3.8% 3.2% 13.4% 15.6% 20.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 5.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.9% 1.0% Consensus: 2.7% 13.8% 6.9% 3.7% 1.1% 4.6% 5.8% 7.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0% SDCON: 1.8% 10.4% 4.4% 2.3% 0.5% 2.8% 3.4% 11.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 08/11/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 45 54 65 74 81 89 94 98 99 100 99 99 104 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 51 62 71 78 86 91 95 96 97 96 96 101 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 44 55 64 71 79 84 88 89 90 89 89 94 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 45 54 61 69 74 78 79 80 79 79 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT