* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 08/11/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 43 51 62 72 82 88 94 98 101 101 99 100 106 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 43 51 62 72 82 88 94 98 101 101 99 100 106 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 38 44 52 60 68 76 83 87 89 87 83 81 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 5 5 5 5 9 8 10 15 19 24 22 16 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 0 1 0 -3 -4 -5 -2 1 -4 1 -6 -1 -1 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 54 47 73 96 119 8 345 354 2 356 334 330 307 308 292 323 305 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 117 117 119 121 127 130 134 138 140 147 151 154 153 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 57 55 52 54 53 55 55 56 57 59 63 65 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 13 15 17 18 19 19 20 22 24 25 25 26 31 850 MB ENV VOR 74 93 100 112 114 100 100 84 71 56 48 36 30 21 14 13 -1 200 MB DIV 26 39 53 52 26 12 3 0 -14 42 40 59 32 33 9 31 10 700-850 TADV 0 2 -2 -2 2 -2 0 0 0 0 4 7 -5 -6 -15 3 6 LAND (KM) 863 1089 1303 1514 1752 2136 1825 1558 1240 987 792 533 355 319 349 504 648 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.9 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.2 27.2 29.2 31.3 33.6 38.1 42.1 45.7 48.9 51.7 54.3 57.0 59.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 21 21 21 18 16 14 13 13 14 13 12 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 4 7 15 23 31 35 41 42 43 46 40 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 19 CX,CY: -15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 11. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 21. 32. 42. 52. 58. 64. 68. 71. 71. 69. 70. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 25.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 08/11/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 15.2% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 17.3% 11.5% 3.8% 1.7% 9.8% 6.1% 4.6% Bayesian: 2.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% Consensus: 4.5% 11.3% 7.9% 4.0% 0.6% 3.7% 2.3% 1.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% SDCON: 2.7% 7.6% 4.4% 2.5% 0.3% 2.3% 1.6% 4.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 08/11/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 43 51 62 72 82 88 94 98 101 101 99 100 106 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 40 48 59 69 79 85 91 95 98 98 96 97 103 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 43 54 64 74 80 86 90 93 93 91 92 98 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 44 54 64 70 76 80 83 83 81 82 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT