* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 08/11/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 47 56 67 76 85 92 99 104 105 103 107 111 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 47 56 67 76 85 92 99 104 105 103 107 111 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 41 48 56 65 74 83 91 96 95 91 89 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 3 5 3 5 9 10 9 9 11 14 24 17 17 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 3 0 2 -4 -5 -3 2 0 4 2 0 7 13 19 SHEAR DIR 46 31 26 51 73 244 6 1 22 1 357 297 284 279 278 285 261 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.9 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 110 117 117 121 124 126 128 133 136 141 150 152 153 154 157 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 60 58 55 59 56 59 57 58 57 58 59 66 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 10 12 15 15 17 18 20 21 23 27 28 29 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR 59 72 97 109 115 102 116 106 92 70 61 56 38 22 12 8 17 200 MB DIV 63 65 55 56 41 8 4 6 -4 18 43 49 62 48 56 45 52 700-850 TADV -19 -9 -6 -5 -2 4 -5 3 0 -1 4 7 8 4 10 34 29 LAND (KM) 657 874 1099 1318 1543 2036 1924 1633 1448 1221 1050 907 706 626 709 869 1095 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.5 18.2 18.6 18.7 18.4 17.8 17.1 16.9 17.1 18.0 19.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.4 25.2 27.2 29.4 31.6 36.3 40.4 43.8 46.5 48.8 51.0 53.3 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 21 18 15 11 11 12 14 15 15 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 2 5 12 19 24 29 31 32 28 32 32 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 20 CX,CY: -17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 15. 15. 18. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 37. 46. 55. 62. 69. 74. 75. 73. 77. 81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 23.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 08/11/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 13.9% 9.4% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 14.6% 9.2% 3.9% 1.6% 6.2% 3.9% 2.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 2.5% 0.3% Consensus: 2.9% 9.7% 6.5% 3.6% 0.6% 2.3% 2.1% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.4% 5.8% 3.7% 1.8% 0.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 08/11/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 39 47 56 67 76 85 92 99 104 105 103 107 111 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 45 54 65 74 83 90 97 102 103 101 105 109 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 49 60 69 78 85 92 97 98 96 100 104 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 40 51 60 69 76 83 88 89 87 91 95 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT