* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 08/10/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 38 44 55 64 72 79 86 89 95 100 102 106 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 38 44 55 64 72 79 86 89 95 100 102 106 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 39 44 50 55 61 69 77 84 89 92 91 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 4 4 2 2 6 5 4 2 5 7 10 9 15 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 8 11 8 4 3 -2 -2 0 7 3 2 2 3 4 8 6 SHEAR DIR 46 49 35 42 63 149 280 328 360 55 29 4 343 323 315 289 286 SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.5 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 113 110 115 118 122 128 129 131 135 137 140 146 149 155 156 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 63 59 54 53 55 53 53 54 54 52 54 55 59 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 11 11 13 14 16 16 17 18 19 19 22 25 27 32 850 MB ENV VOR 52 49 64 89 99 91 80 89 82 75 58 55 35 17 -23 -56 -37 200 MB DIV 67 65 49 47 43 19 -8 -21 -2 -5 22 36 28 32 47 25 31 700-850 TADV -21 -18 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 -2 2 1 3 4 2 4 15 27 38 LAND (KM) 438 616 845 1039 1255 1728 2199 1874 1602 1326 1126 1007 885 806 843 1058 1371 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 17.0 18.0 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.1 18.5 18.2 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.5 22.8 24.7 26.7 28.9 33.5 38.0 42.0 45.4 48.1 50.3 51.9 53.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 21 21 22 20 18 14 12 9 9 10 12 15 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 6 13 20 26 29 30 29 25 24 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 25. 34. 42. 49. 56. 59. 65. 70. 72. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 21.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 08/10/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.43 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.9% 8.9% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 2.8% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.3% 4.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.8% 1.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.9% 3.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 08/10/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 38 44 55 64 72 79 86 89 95 100 102 106 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 36 42 53 62 70 77 84 87 93 98 100 104 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 33 39 50 59 67 74 81 84 90 95 97 101 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 32 43 52 60 67 74 77 83 88 90 94 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT