* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 08/10/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 33 38 45 54 60 67 73 81 88 94 99 99 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 33 38 45 54 60 67 73 81 88 94 99 99 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 28 31 36 40 45 50 56 64 71 80 85 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 14 12 10 10 6 3 2 5 9 7 13 11 13 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 48 54 55 51 62 96 113 243 254 251 263 277 276 285 273 279 275 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.0 25.9 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.3 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 126 115 116 116 118 120 124 131 137 144 149 152 153 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 81 77 75 72 72 66 62 60 59 56 54 52 51 51 52 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 11 12 13 14 14 16 17 20 23 27 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 90 79 67 53 56 81 98 73 67 55 35 18 6 -4 -2 -9 -16 200 MB DIV 53 63 90 96 72 52 54 -1 -21 2 11 40 39 32 44 34 37 700-850 TADV -21 -16 -20 -21 -8 -3 0 -1 -1 6 6 9 9 8 6 15 6 LAND (KM) 336 389 481 612 763 1135 1557 2007 2035 1756 1417 1081 790 600 538 583 742 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.0 19.4 20.0 20.8 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.9 20.9 22.0 23.2 24.5 27.8 31.7 36.1 40.3 44.3 48.2 52.0 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 18 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 15 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 1 5 10 17 25 29 28 38 38 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 27. 32. 34. 37. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -2. 0. 4. 8. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 20. 29. 35. 42. 48. 56. 63. 69. 74. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 19.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 08/10/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.1% 9.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 26.4% 10.9% 3.0% 3.3% 9.0% 11.6% 10.7% Bayesian: 1.6% 7.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 2.2% 0.4% Consensus: 3.6% 15.8% 7.0% 3.1% 1.1% 3.5% 8.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 8.4% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.7% 4.2% 1.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 08/10/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 30 33 38 45 54 60 67 73 81 88 94 99 99 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 35 42 51 57 64 70 78 85 91 96 96 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 31 38 47 53 60 66 74 81 87 92 92 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 24 31 40 46 53 59 67 74 80 85 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT