* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 08/10/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 32 35 41 45 50 56 62 68 74 80 86 91 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 32 35 41 45 50 56 62 68 74 80 86 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 39 42 46 53 60 69 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 28 20 16 15 11 8 4 7 14 17 16 11 14 10 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 0 1 3 3 8 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 42 44 49 62 95 106 184 262 253 248 265 254 265 268 281 287 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.4 26.6 25.8 25.6 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 135 130 121 114 113 117 122 127 133 140 146 148 152 153 154 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 79 81 78 77 75 70 67 64 58 51 47 46 48 49 51 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 16 14 15 14 15 15 16 17 18 20 23 26 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 76 82 76 54 40 53 72 71 50 32 16 -5 3 5 15 20 25 200 MB DIV 47 63 52 67 73 53 51 4 3 5 17 21 36 25 53 24 9 700-850 TADV -19 -24 -16 -20 -19 -1 1 11 2 14 16 12 10 7 5 7 4 LAND (KM) 269 332 396 440 534 815 1180 1598 2030 2144 1804 1448 1127 844 649 498 483 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.9 12.8 13.8 14.8 16.6 17.9 19.0 20.0 20.8 21.6 22.3 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.5 24.9 28.1 32.2 36.5 40.9 44.9 48.8 52.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 16 18 21 21 20 19 18 16 17 15 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 7 4 1 1 0 1 5 10 18 23 25 28 40 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 32. 34. 36. 38. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 25. 31. 37. 43. 49. 55. 61. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 18.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 08/10/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 10.6% 6.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 6.0% 2.9% 1.7% 0.1% 0.3% 3.6% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 08/10/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 29 32 35 41 45 50 56 62 68 74 80 86 91 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 27 30 33 39 43 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 89 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 28 34 38 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 84 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 21 27 31 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT