* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 08/09/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 35 37 41 47 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 35 37 41 47 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 34 38 41 44 47 51 56 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 33 29 22 18 19 11 3 4 9 16 21 18 17 18 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 0 -1 0 2 10 7 3 0 -2 -3 -6 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 53 46 41 48 46 78 103 81 266 281 263 263 277 276 299 286 298 SST (C) 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 26.0 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.5 27.3 27.8 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 132 135 135 115 113 117 118 123 132 138 146 148 153 152 155 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 79 79 75 74 68 59 53 46 45 46 50 52 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 16 15 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 23 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 70 67 61 61 36 18 32 66 46 40 2 -19 -33 -11 -10 7 9 200 MB DIV 58 57 65 49 55 32 42 26 -4 4 13 13 39 50 27 6 26 700-850 TADV -13 -18 -17 -15 -15 -9 0 10 14 10 13 7 2 3 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 266 287 303 347 383 558 874 1291 1713 2179 2049 1654 1272 950 711 532 504 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.5 12.5 13.4 15.3 16.9 18.2 19.6 20.8 21.9 22.9 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.0 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.8 22.7 25.4 29.1 33.4 38.0 42.4 46.9 51.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 14 17 21 22 22 21 21 20 19 17 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 8 3 1 0 0 2 6 13 20 23 27 40 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 39. 43. 47. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 18.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 08/09/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.5% 8.4% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 6.3% 3.5% 2.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 08/09/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 34 35 37 41 47 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 32 33 35 39 45 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 28 30 34 40 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 20 22 26 32 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT