* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 08/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 31 34 39 42 51 54 64 70 79 86 90 97 102 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 31 34 39 42 51 54 64 70 79 86 90 97 102 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 41 48 55 63 71 82 92 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 27 28 23 20 12 7 9 6 3 6 5 7 2 9 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 61 56 53 50 48 70 76 115 122 147 244 270 293 316 303 312 298 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9 26.9 26.0 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 131 133 136 125 116 122 120 121 127 132 139 142 145 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 81 79 73 71 64 60 55 50 49 48 50 50 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 16 16 17 16 18 17 20 21 25 27 27 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 80 64 61 63 59 34 50 77 100 81 82 75 64 73 75 82 79 200 MB DIV 50 61 62 67 67 95 60 62 36 1 -6 8 14 29 9 30 -10 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -14 -15 -17 -20 -4 0 5 2 7 3 0 -7 1 -2 5 LAND (KM) 213 234 256 282 358 513 837 1224 1655 2098 1939 1624 1217 900 567 291 94 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.8 12.7 14.6 16.2 17.2 17.9 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.1 22.3 25.2 28.7 32.7 36.9 41.2 45.4 49.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 13 15 17 18 20 20 21 19 19 16 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 11 10 4 2 1 1 2 5 12 22 31 42 50 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 2. -1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 9. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 26. 29. 39. 45. 54. 61. 65. 72. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 17.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 08/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.61 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.7% 9.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 8.7% 2.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.3% 0.2% 0.5% 4.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 08/09/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 31 34 39 42 51 54 64 70 79 86 90 97 102 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 33 38 41 50 53 63 69 78 85 89 96 101 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 29 34 37 46 49 59 65 74 81 85 92 97 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 28 37 40 50 56 65 72 76 83 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT