* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL922025 09/17/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 38 41 45 45 48 50 55 61 63 71 71 76 77 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 38 41 45 45 48 50 55 61 63 71 71 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 33 33 33 34 36 40 45 50 57 65 72 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 16 20 19 17 15 13 10 11 10 9 6 10 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 281 270 262 275 276 287 271 261 254 245 223 226 260 283 285 297 277 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 139 141 145 144 149 152 150 151 155 158 156 155 160 147 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 71 70 65 58 51 50 51 54 56 63 68 72 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 17 18 21 22 27 28 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 67 56 51 43 34 27 51 48 41 25 22 9 14 16 11 0 1 200 MB DIV 135 125 128 116 84 14 14 -6 15 21 28 9 13 19 33 7 26 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 3 0 8 2 -4 -2 -5 -1 0 0 3 7 22 24 LAND (KM) 1336 1369 1398 1411 1400 1225 1088 879 726 656 672 734 832 924 1017 1204 1250 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 5 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 34 35 35 41 43 45 47 45 42 42 40 36 33 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -3. -4. -6. -4. -1. -1. 5. 6. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 15. 18. 20. 25. 31. 33. 41. 41. 46. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 43.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 09/17/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.67 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 14.2% 9.1% 5.8% 4.3% 9.5% 10.8% 19.4% Logistic: 1.7% 5.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 2.4% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 1.3% 6.8% 3.8% 2.1% 1.5% 3.6% 4.5% 8.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 5.9% 2.9% 1.5% 1.2% 2.3% 2.2% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 09/17/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 09/17/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 38 41 45 45 48 50 55 61 63 71 71 76 77 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 39 43 43 46 48 53 59 61 69 69 74 75 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 37 37 40 42 47 53 55 63 63 68 69 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 29 29 32 34 39 45 47 55 55 60 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT