* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENZO AL122025 10/14/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 52 52 52 52 51 52 50 51 52 55 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 52 52 52 52 51 52 50 51 52 55 56 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 51 51 51 53 55 56 58 60 60 59 59 59 60 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 5 2 2 7 15 13 2 5 9 20 13 7 7 10 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 4 1 0 -3 -4 -1 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 0 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 271 265 240 335 68 51 93 143 294 292 293 324 8 84 166 162 190 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.8 26.7 25.8 25.5 25.5 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 136 139 139 138 124 113 108 107 112 112 115 118 128 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 63 57 54 54 55 55 57 58 58 53 50 47 46 46 48 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 13 12 10 8 6 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -55 -67 -81 -86 -55 -83 -118 -118 -124 -137 -147 -125 -122 -145 -125 -88 200 MB DIV 60 47 17 6 7 19 12 2 -16 -21 -49 -31 -11 -9 -5 19 28 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 4 0 -8 -1 -9 0 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1615 1628 1639 1695 1711 1853 2113 2428 2114 1866 1650 1530 1495 1500 1552 1651 1829 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.1 19.0 21.5 24.1 26.9 29.7 31.4 31.5 30.9 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.0 43.7 44.1 44.6 44.3 42.6 40.2 36.2 32.7 30.3 29.2 29.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 13 16 20 20 13 8 5 5 3 5 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 30 29 27 25 14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -22. -25. -24. -23. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 42.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122025 LORENZO 10/14/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.7% 11.0% 8.7% 6.7% 12.4% 13.9% 21.3% Logistic: 1.3% 6.0% 3.0% 1.9% 0.8% 4.7% 2.9% 5.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.5% 4.8% 3.6% 2.5% 5.8% 5.9% 9.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.6% 4.2% 2.9% 1.8% 1.2% 2.9% 2.9% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122025 LORENZO 10/14/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122025 LORENZO 10/14/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 52 52 52 52 52 51 52 50 51 52 55 56 58 60 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 50 50 50 50 49 50 48 49 50 53 54 56 58 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 46 46 46 45 46 44 45 46 49 50 52 54 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 40 40 39 40 38 39 40 43 44 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT