* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENZO AL122025 10/13/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 48 48 49 48 51 51 53 52 51 51 55 56 60 64 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 48 48 49 48 51 51 53 52 51 51 55 56 60 64 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 46 45 46 49 52 54 57 59 58 57 58 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 11 4 4 2 10 16 9 3 5 14 21 15 9 1 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 8 4 0 -2 -7 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 1 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 262 272 247 248 297 42 62 120 187 240 267 292 320 340 24 329 318 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.4 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 134 134 134 137 141 138 131 121 112 106 107 110 115 120 131 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 59 55 56 53 59 57 59 54 52 50 47 47 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 15 13 12 8 7 5 5 4 4 5 7 7 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -33 -49 -63 -78 -83 -68 -103 -140 -146 -155 -166 -176 -171 -179 -152 -95 200 MB DIV 95 74 52 23 11 0 16 6 21 13 -30 -36 -24 -1 1 12 49 700-850 TADV 7 1 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 2 -1 4 12 -2 2 -2 1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1610 1600 1596 1642 1694 1743 1937 2201 2367 2110 1833 1623 1533 1514 1571 1698 1965 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.5 16.1 17.1 18.0 20.0 22.4 25.0 27.9 30.3 31.8 32.0 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.3 42.2 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.7 43.9 42.0 39.4 35.9 32.2 29.8 29.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 11 10 11 14 17 19 18 13 7 5 5 9 15 19 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 29 30 29 25 24 13 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -18. -20. -24. -24. -23. -20. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 6. 6. 8. 7. 6. 6. 10. 11. 15. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 41.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 14.5% 10.0% 7.6% 5.8% 11.6% 13.4% 22.3% Logistic: 1.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2.4% 4.6% 3.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.5% 3.9% 2.8% 2.0% 4.8% 6.2% 8.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.4% 3.7% 2.4% 1.9% 1.0% 2.4% 3.1% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 48 48 49 48 51 51 53 52 51 51 55 56 60 64 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 46 47 46 49 49 51 50 49 49 53 54 58 62 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 42 41 44 44 46 45 44 44 48 49 53 57 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 35 38 38 40 39 38 38 42 43 47 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT