* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENZO AL122025 10/13/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 49 48 49 52 54 54 56 54 53 54 55 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 49 48 49 52 54 54 56 54 53 54 55 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 46 44 44 47 51 55 57 58 56 54 53 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 18 10 5 3 3 11 11 6 13 17 26 20 13 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 8 5 1 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 254 258 246 227 129 44 98 147 175 216 261 313 354 24 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.2 27.9 26.8 25.9 24.9 24.8 25.1 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 136 134 133 136 141 138 125 116 106 103 104 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 7 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 61 64 58 54 51 52 56 57 57 58 54 53 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 14 12 9 8 7 6 7 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -17 -29 -46 -59 -73 -64 -67 -126 -142 -136 -131 -117 -149 -192 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 90 60 65 30 11 30 16 23 46 2 -17 -33 -19 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 -1 -4 -3 -1 2 1 5 -9 10 -8 -2 -6 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1624 1593 1571 1592 1613 1705 1801 2003 2300 2279 2106 1824 1531 1464 1589 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.1 19.1 21.2 23.7 26.6 29.5 32.1 33.3 32.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.7 42.7 43.4 44.1 44.7 44.7 43.6 41.6 38.8 35.1 31.5 28.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 11 12 15 18 20 18 14 8 5 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 30 31 27 25 18 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -17. -16. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 11. 9. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 40.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 13.4% 9.2% 7.1% 5.4% 11.0% 12.9% 21.7% Logistic: 1.5% 4.5% 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 3.9% 4.0% 2.4% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.8% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 6.2% 3.8% 2.9% 2.0% 5.1% 6.5% 8.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.3% 4.1% 2.4% 1.9% 1.0% 3.0% 3.2% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 47 48 49 48 49 52 54 54 56 54 53 54 55 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 46 45 46 49 51 51 53 51 50 51 52 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 42 43 46 48 48 50 48 47 48 49 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 36 39 41 41 43 41 40 41 42 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT