* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENZO AL122025 10/13/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 42 44 44 44 43 39 39 39 39 40 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 42 44 44 44 43 39 39 39 39 40 41 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 41 40 38 37 37 37 36 36 37 37 38 40 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 27 18 9 7 8 13 18 21 24 22 16 16 13 12 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 8 5 -1 0 0 -1 -4 0 0 3 1 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 251 250 240 237 192 164 150 152 157 162 192 229 285 293 320 331 303 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.1 27.8 26.8 25.9 25.3 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 136 137 135 132 136 140 138 127 116 108 106 109 111 111 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 60 59 50 51 47 52 51 54 51 49 46 41 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 12 9 6 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 -13 -23 -30 -45 -52 -77 -94 -153 -185 -180 -163 -148 -154 -145 -146 200 MB DIV 30 44 82 64 48 32 -3 5 1 23 26 13 -35 -15 6 24 36 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 -6 -4 1 1 0 -7 -13 -13 -19 0 -5 -3 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1669 1624 1570 1523 1458 1434 1403 1513 1739 2077 2257 2139 1818 1614 1561 1668 1770 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.7 18.2 20.1 22.5 25.7 29.2 31.9 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.6 40.9 42.2 43.3 44.6 46.5 47.4 47.2 45.9 43.6 39.9 35.5 31.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 12 12 9 9 12 16 22 24 20 12 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 26 28 31 32 33 29 27 13 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -15. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 39.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 10.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 10.6% 17.4% Logistic: 1.4% 3.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 2.0% 5.2% 3.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 4.6% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 3.7% 5.8% 7.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 2.9% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122025 LORENZO 10/13/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 42 42 44 44 44 43 39 39 39 39 40 41 43 45 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 42 42 42 41 37 37 37 37 38 39 41 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 38 38 38 37 33 33 33 33 34 35 37 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 32 32 31 27 27 27 27 28 29 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT