* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 10/13/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 46 47 47 47 44 42 42 42 43 45 48 51 52 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 46 47 47 47 44 42 42 42 43 45 48 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 44 43 41 39 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 48 51 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 23 19 13 5 10 13 20 20 23 11 13 8 4 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 0 -1 2 4 0 2 -1 -1 -2 2 2 1 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 250 252 261 260 263 212 164 148 146 162 170 207 247 297 308 28 217 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.9 28.1 27.8 26.7 25.7 25.2 25.4 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 134 134 138 137 132 136 140 138 126 114 108 108 109 108 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 9 9 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 63 59 53 51 49 47 50 51 53 53 50 45 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 13 9 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 -5 -15 -20 -32 -48 -76 -98 -120 -159 -180 -189 -183 -172 -187 -165 200 MB DIV 35 26 53 88 73 38 -3 -9 12 6 28 19 -7 -18 -25 -13 36 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -6 -2 1 0 -2 -5 -15 -7 -10 -3 -9 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1676 1597 1539 1476 1435 1341 1369 1387 1521 1737 2058 2215 2183 1878 1646 1622 1686 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.2 16.3 17.8 19.9 22.4 25.7 29.4 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 40.3 41.5 42.7 43.7 45.7 47.0 47.4 47.0 45.9 43.8 40.4 36.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 15 12 11 10 9 8 9 12 16 22 25 20 13 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 26 28 33 32 33 29 27 14 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 21 CX,CY: -16/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 838 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 23. 22. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.7 38.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 10/13/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.54 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 14.2% 9.8% 7.2% 5.2% 10.5% 12.0% 18.5% Logistic: 1.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1.2% 2.8% 3.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.6% 3.9% 2.6% 1.8% 4.0% 5.3% 7.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.9% 4.8% 2.9% 1.8% 0.9% 2.5% 2.6% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972025 INVEST 10/13/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 10/13/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 46 47 47 47 44 42 42 42 43 45 48 51 52 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 43 44 44 44 41 39 39 39 40 42 45 48 49 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 39 39 39 36 34 34 34 35 37 40 43 44 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 31 31 28 26 26 26 27 29 32 35 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT