* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 10/12/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 33 32 34 32 31 34 36 38 42 44 46 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 33 32 34 32 31 34 36 38 42 44 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 27 25 24 25 26 28 30 32 34 37 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 28 26 19 7 6 10 16 19 20 15 13 8 13 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 4 0 1 6 2 0 0 -5 -7 -4 -3 -4 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 248 247 257 258 262 257 174 114 117 127 142 168 175 207 187 220 227 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 138 137 134 135 132 136 140 138 132 124 118 117 122 123 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.7 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 8 8 8 8 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 67 66 64 52 54 50 56 52 53 50 47 42 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 12 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 0 -14 -31 -49 -66 -74 -87 -93 -148 -185 -203 -189 -170 -172 -165 200 MB DIV 47 34 27 46 94 21 16 -9 15 0 2 2 15 -10 -2 -6 52 700-850 TADV 0 4 0 1 0 -7 0 0 -1 -7 -16 -4 -8 -3 0 -5 2 LAND (KM) 1655 1721 1659 1610 1570 1490 1478 1555 1657 1886 2174 2369 2120 1941 1895 1971 2100 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.4 15.1 16.3 18.0 20.0 22.4 25.3 28.0 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.8 38.2 39.4 40.5 41.4 43.4 45.1 45.8 45.6 44.4 42.4 39.4 36.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 11 10 10 10 9 12 15 19 18 12 5 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 24 24 28 32 31 26 25 13 4 1 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 19 CX,CY: -15/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 802 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 30. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -7. -13. -18. -20. -20. -21. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 4. 2. 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 36.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 10/12/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.64 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.5% 7.7% 5.5% 0.0% 8.0% 8.9% 16.6% Logistic: 1.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.8% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.1% 3.0% 2.0% 0.1% 3.1% 3.8% 6.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.9% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972025 INVEST 10/12/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 10/12/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 33 32 34 32 31 34 36 38 42 44 46 46 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 31 30 32 30 29 32 34 36 40 42 44 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 27 26 28 26 25 28 30 32 36 38 40 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 19 21 19 18 21 23 25 29 31 33 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT