* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 10/12/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 25 29 31 36 38 39 42 43 45 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 25 29 31 36 38 39 42 43 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 18 18 20 22 25 27 30 32 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 17 21 22 16 6 3 9 10 8 11 15 19 14 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 15 12 9 6 7 5 0 -1 -3 -7 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 279 262 252 257 253 251 252 78 81 106 112 147 158 212 229 270 262 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.5 26.6 25.5 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 145 143 140 138 134 131 129 128 128 131 133 123 112 104 103 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 10 9 9 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 75 75 70 65 57 53 51 50 47 47 53 54 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 14 12 9 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 21 14 2 -11 -42 -78 -92 -90 -83 -100 -153 -184 -188 -192 -190 -185 200 MB DIV 90 82 106 82 103 51 12 -17 -5 15 16 16 14 21 -17 0 -4 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 3 5 0 -2 0 0 -3 -8 -3 -10 -2 -6 2 -6 LAND (KM) 1540 1577 1637 1698 1692 1656 1633 1702 1841 1972 2078 2211 2414 2216 2137 1871 1602 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.8 11.6 12.3 13.1 14.4 15.6 17.2 18.8 20.4 22.1 24.4 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.8 36.1 37.1 38.0 38.8 40.3 41.9 42.9 42.9 42.5 42.2 41.7 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 10 13 17 19 18 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 21 23 24 25 28 26 24 18 13 7 2 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. 36. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -18. -20. -23. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. 0. 4. 6. 11. 13. 14. 17. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 34.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 10/12/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.27 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.56 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.70 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 10.5% 6.6% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 1.7% 4.3% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% Consensus: 1.4% 5.6% 2.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.7% 4.1% 3.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 3.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 2.0% 1.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 10/12/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 25 29 31 36 38 39 42 43 45 47 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 25 23 24 28 30 35 37 38 41 42 44 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 21 19 20 24 26 31 33 34 37 38 40 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT