* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 10/12/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 36 35 37 39 42 44 46 47 47 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 36 35 37 39 42 44 46 47 47 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 24 23 24 26 30 33 36 38 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 13 17 15 13 15 11 12 12 9 11 16 13 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 12 9 8 8 7 0 0 -2 -7 -3 -1 1 3 6 2 SHEAR DIR 308 296 284 270 270 247 272 314 20 35 77 118 176 204 250 245 258 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.4 26.9 25.9 24.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 140 141 145 141 139 134 132 131 127 130 131 125 116 103 101 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -55.6 -55.1 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 77 79 80 78 76 73 63 60 52 54 48 49 50 55 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 14 16 15 12 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 22 14 3 -29 -67 -100 -104 -90 -90 -130 -168 -192 -184 -187 -197 200 MB DIV 126 103 102 114 97 119 32 -15 -14 10 23 38 16 17 17 31 -12 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -1 3 10 4 -2 0 0 -6 -9 0 -4 -13 5 10 LAND (KM) 1480 1460 1492 1548 1625 1770 1775 1797 1900 2029 2155 2252 2390 2333 2158 2081 1806 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.0 9.7 10.5 11.4 13.2 14.7 16.2 17.9 19.6 21.3 23.4 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.3 35.2 36.0 36.7 38.0 39.1 40.3 40.9 41.1 41.0 41.0 40.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 12 10 9 10 8 9 10 12 14 16 18 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 23 20 20 23 27 23 22 22 18 15 10 3 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 33.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 10/12/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.63 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.74 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.3% 9.8% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 22.7% 10.2% 5.1% 2.3% 4.2% 7.4% 9.6% Bayesian: 3.6% 7.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 5.1% 15.0% 7.3% 4.1% 1.0% 1.6% 5.7% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 10/12/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 36 36 35 37 39 42 44 46 47 47 44 44 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 33 32 34 36 39 41 43 44 44 41 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 28 27 29 31 34 36 38 39 39 36 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 20 19 21 23 26 28 30 31 31 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT