* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL972025 10/12/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 41 43 40 44 46 48 47 54 56 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 41 43 40 44 46 48 47 54 56 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 29 28 27 25 25 28 32 35 40 45 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 10 11 17 18 16 10 10 10 10 8 5 5 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 15 13 9 7 7 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -6 -4 -4 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 280 283 248 257 283 253 262 287 344 352 27 58 107 102 104 122 175 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 147 141 141 144 139 138 133 133 130 128 126 123 124 119 112 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 80 80 78 74 68 61 57 55 54 54 50 50 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 16 16 17 16 12 12 11 12 9 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 36 23 15 -11 -48 -86 -98 -94 -89 -104 -123 -161 -172 -181 -164 200 MB DIV 174 156 142 146 150 109 79 -11 -24 -3 16 2 28 12 21 26 12 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -5 0 4 7 3 0 3 -1 -9 -1 0 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1513 1465 1445 1476 1530 1690 1768 1780 1859 1979 2146 2318 2244 2159 2078 1954 1820 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.5 10.3 12.1 13.6 15.1 16.7 18.2 20.0 22.0 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 33.1 34.2 35.1 35.9 37.2 38.3 39.4 40.0 40.1 39.9 39.4 38.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 10 10 11 10 10 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 32 25 21 20 24 26 22 21 19 14 12 7 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 41. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -6. -8. -10. -10. -15. -13. -14. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 15. 19. 21. 23. 22. 29. 31. 33. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.1 31.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972025 INVEST 10/12/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 153.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.84 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.76 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 18.8% 11.5% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 37.8% 15.6% 9.5% 5.4% 7.4% 7.6% 14.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 8.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 4.7% 21.7% 9.8% 5.9% 2.0% 2.7% 6.1% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972025 INVEST 10/12/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 36 39 41 43 40 44 46 48 47 54 56 58 56 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 35 37 39 36 40 42 44 43 50 52 54 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 30 32 34 31 35 37 39 38 45 47 49 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 23 25 22 26 28 30 29 36 38 40 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT