* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 10/09/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 42 39 41 49 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 42 39 41 49 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 41 39 40 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 10 11 15 15 11 17 13 31 40 N/A N/A N/A 17 14 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -4 -3 0 1 5 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A 5 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 268 317 333 328 307 275 244 263 315 344 N/A N/A N/A 343 348 336 301 SST (C) 19.9 19.3 18.6 16.9 16.6 12.8 11.5 10.3 8.5 4.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 76 75 72 73 71 73 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -56.0 -56.9 -57.7 -58.8 -58.7 -59.7 -60.4 -59.6 N/A N/A N/A -60.6 -59.6 -59.1 -58.8 200 MB VXT (C) 3.9 3.5 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 51 53 59 60 67 66 58 N/A N/A N/A 39 41 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 17 15 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 39 8 -17 -27 -39 -36 -64 -117 -51 N/A N/A N/A 24 12 -14 -40 200 MB DIV 43 -16 -26 23 21 36 48 -18 20 44 N/A N/A N/A -104 -101 -50 -43 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -6 -1 -4 -10 10 26 83 124 N/A N/A N/A 6 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1474 1488 1525 1586 1565 1266 764 33 328 123 N/A N/A N/A -433 -273 -186 -79 LAT (DEG N) 44.0 44.6 45.3 46.1 47.2 50.9 57.1 63.1 65.5 64.3 N/A N/A N/A xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 33.8 33.0 31.9 30.7 28.5 25.8 18.7 6.5 -6.9 N/A N/A N/A xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 16 26 35 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A 16 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. 0. 6. 13. 0. 0. 0. 40. 47. 52. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 0. 0. 0. 15. 14. 17. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 0. 0. 0. 11. 8. 2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. -6. -5. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -27. -30. -33. 0. 0. 0. -34. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -4. 4. 14. 0. 0. 0. 40. 47. 54. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 44.0 34.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 10/09/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 10/09/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 44 42 39 41 49 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 41 38 40 48 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 38 35 37 45 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 29 31 39 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT