* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 10/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 45 46 45 41 42 50 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 45 46 45 41 42 42 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 46 44 41 41 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 2 9 11 15 16 9 16 26 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -3 -5 -6 0 4 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 255 313 322 313 294 214 263 298 339 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.2 19.5 18.8 17.1 16.1 13.8 11.6 10.6 7.8 4.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 77 75 72 71 71 73 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -55.7 -56.0 -57.2 -58.8 -58.7 -58.8 -59.8 -59.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.7 3.8 3.6 2.8 1.8 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 52 59 61 68 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 18 16 11 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 63 39 2 -15 -10 -18 -11 -69 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 34 -18 -5 40 35 66 2 6 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -5 -2 1 6 35 102 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1478 1481 1505 1539 1584 1368 949 136 211 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.4 44.2 45.0 45.9 46.9 50.0 55.6 62.5 66.4 66.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.6 34.1 33.4 32.6 31.7 29.6 27.4 21.6 9.5 -5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 13 22 35 36 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -0. 6. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -21. -28. -31. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -4. -3. 5. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 43.4 34.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 10/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 10/09/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 45 46 45 41 42 42 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 45 44 40 41 41 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 41 40 36 37 37 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 31 32 32 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT