* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 10/09/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 46 46 43 66 82 95 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 46 46 43 66 50 69 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 44 44 53 42 49 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 4 11 13 18 9 18 21 46 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -6 -2 -2 -1 1 5 2 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 216 252 303 308 289 243 237 277 321 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.1 19.8 19.0 17.6 15.9 14.1 11.1 11.2 7.9 10.8 4.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 78 76 73 70 70 71 73 70 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 -56.2 -58.1 -58.9 -59.1 -59.8 -59.6 -59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.3 2.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 53 54 57 61 65 67 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 18 14 8 21 27 30 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 74 47 29 1 -20 2 -1 -68 -92 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 23 16 -1 5 33 36 20 -2 -4 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -2 -5 -1 -5 2 3 18 94 138 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1474 1478 1481 1494 1514 1508 1196 381 -24 539 -115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.0 43.9 44.8 45.6 46.6 49.0 53.6 60.6 65.9 66.6 64.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.9 34.3 33.8 33.3 32.7 31.1 29.3 25.3 15.4 0.5 -13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 10 12 17 31 38 31 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -1. 5. 8. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -18. -4. 2. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. 21. 37. 50. 63. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 43.0 34.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 10/09/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 10/09/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 46 46 43 66 50 69 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 45 45 42 65 49 68 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 41 38 61 45 64 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 31 54 38 57 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT